Prediction record
MisseconomyEuropean auto manufacturing will be completely shut down within one year (by November 2023), along with nitrogen-based fertilizer production, aluminum smelting, and most steel foundries.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“no one is making nitrogen-based fertilizer in Europe anymore no one is smelting aluminum anymore a lot of the steel foundries are shutting down auto manufacturers already down by a quarter and it's dropping fast it'll be gone in less than a year”
European auto manufacturing will be completely shut down within one year (by November 2023), along with nitrogen-based fertilizer production, aluminum smelting, and most steel foundries.
- Made on
- 2022-11-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-11-22
By 2023-11-22, test whether European automobile manufacturing has ceased ('gone'), plus nitrogen-fertilizer production, aluminum smelting, and a majority of steel foundries shut down. Resolves true only if these industries are effectively non-operational across Europe.
Criterion requires these industries to be 'effectively non-operational across Europe' by 2023-11-22. The headline claim — European automobile manufacturing 'completely shut down / gone within one year' — is decisively false: EU car production ROSE 11.6% in 2023. The accompanying claims are partially directionally right on stress (aluminium output >50% down, ~35% of ammonia capacity idled, record-low steel output with some idled plants) but none reached 'completely shut down' / non-operational; all sectors continued producing. Because the criterion resolves true only if these industries are effectively non-operational across Europe, and the central auto claim is contradicted outright while the others remained operational, the prediction resolves false. Resolved_on = deadline.
Sources
Ukrainian Consequences: Energy in Europe
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, the industry's official statistical body): EU passenger-car production in 2023 was ~12.1-12.2 million units, an INCREASE of 11.6% versus 2022. European auto manufacturing was not 'completely shut down' — it grew materially year-over-year. Directly refutes the claim that European auto manufacturing would be 'gone' by November 2023.
Nitrogen/ammonia (fertilizer): per CEFIC, over 35% of EU ammonia capacity was idled in 2023 due to high gas prices — severe stress, but the majority of capacity remained operational and some plants restarted; production was not eliminated. Not 'shut down' in the absolute sense the claim requires.
Primary aluminium: European output had fallen by more than half since the start of the energy crisis (~1.4 Mt curtailed by end-2022, ~52% capacity loss), with most remaining smelters curtailed — but the industry was 'not dead yet' and continued partial operation, with restarts incentivised into 2024-25. Steel (EUROFER): 2023 recorded the lowest EU crude-steel production on record with idled plants, but foundries/mills continued operating, not a majority-shutdown to non-operational.
Corrections
- horizon type: 'less than a year' is a relative phrase, not an explicit calendar deadline; the deadline (2023-11-22) is INFERRED via +12 months from made_on. Sibling -auto-collapse-1yr correctly labels the identical phrase 'inferred'; align for consistency. Fixable misclassification.
- Prediction timeframe: Basis should quote the trigger phrase and name the inference applied, matching the inferred type.
Score contribution
-2.22- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
European auto manufacturing will be completely shut down wi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources