Prediction record
MissenergyWinter 2023-2024 will be far tougher for Europe's energy situation than winter 2022-2023, due to reduced storage-refill capacity.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missenergy“next winter is going to be far tougher”
Winter 2023-2024 will be far tougher for Europe's energy situation than winter 2022-2023, due to reduced storage-refill capacity.
- Made on
- 2022-11-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
During winter 2023-2024, European energy conditions (prices, shortages, rationing) are materially worse than winter 2022-2023.
Criterion: during winter 2023-2024 European energy conditions (prices, shortages, rationing) are materially WORSE than winter 2022-2023. Evidence shows the reverse — record-high storage, ~50%+ lower TTF prices, no shortages or rationing. The predicted mechanism (insufficient storage-refill capacity making 2023-24 far tougher) failed. Prediction clearly did not come true. resolved_on = end of the winter window / deadline (2024-03-31).
Sources
Ukrainian Consequences: Energy in Europe
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
European energy conditions in winter 2023-2024 were materially BETTER, not worse, than winter 2022-2023 — the opposite of the prediction. Per the U.S. EIA, EU gas storage ended the 2023-24 heating season at 59% full as of April 1, 2024 — the highest end-of-heating-season level on record, ~83% above the 2011-23 average. The storage-refill concern the prediction was premised on did not materialize; storage stayed comfortably high.
Wholesale gas prices fell sharply winter-over-winter and there was no rationing. Dutch TTF averaged roughly EUR 27/MWh in Q1 2024 with no winter risk premium, versus roughly EUR 60-70/MWh in January 2023 (and far higher peaks during the 2022 crisis). IEA/Bruegel/EIA reporting describes 2022-23 as 'the most challenging ever' for Europe's gas grid, while two consecutive mild winters plus demand cuts left the 2023-24 winter calm. EU gas consumption in 2023 was ~18% below the 2017-21 average.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Winter 2023-2024 will be far tougher for Europe's energy si…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources