Prediction record
MisseconomyGermany will be the first European country to impose broad capital controls.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“Germany is likely to be the first of the European countries to enact broad-scale Capital controls because very soon they won't have a choice”
Germany will be the first European country to impose broad capital controls.
- Made on
- 2022-11-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-02-03
Germany formally enacts broad capital controls (restrictions on cross-border capital movement) before the deadline.
Criterion: Germany formally enacts broad capital controls before 2023-02-03. Outcome: not met — this is a negative-existence claim and the evidenced absence is strong: no credible source reports Germany enacting any broad capital controls in this window (or in 2023 at all), and EU law (TFEU Art. 63) structurally constrains such measures. 'Border controls' that surfaced in searches are migration checks on people, not capital, and post-date the deadline. Resolving as resolved (criterion not satisfied) on the basis of well-documented non-occurrence; inherent caveat that proving a negative relies on absence of evidence across reputable financial/legal/news sources, which here is consistent. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Implications of Rising Interest Rates
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
No evidence that Germany enacted broad capital controls (restrictions on cross-border capital movement) by the Feb 3, 2023 deadline or at any point in 2023. Searches for German capital controls in this period return only (a) migration-related land-border checks (people, not capital, and beginning later in 2023/2024) and (b) routine EU corporate-transformation rules — neither is a capital control. As an EU member, Germany is bound by Article 63 TFEU, which prohibits restrictions on the free movement of capital absent narrow public-interest exceptions, making broad national capital controls legally constrained.
Contextual counter-fact: the country that actually imposed wartime capital controls in this era was Russia (mandatory FX conversion for exporters, etc.), not Germany — and Germany was not reported as imposing or being first to impose European capital controls. No reputable source records Germany enacting capital controls before the deadline.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: Existing basis is a self-contradicting draft note concluding +12mo while the deadline is set to +3mo. 'very soon' reads as the imminent/'within weeks' family (+3mo), matching the already-set 2023-02-03 deadline; clean the basis to state the rule actually applied. Resolution-neutral (no German controls occurred in 2023).
- tags: Tag by claim subject: broad capital controls are a domestic financial/policy action inside one country, not relations/conflict between states. Per the politics-vs-geopolitics boundary rule (inside one country -> politics), politics is the correct second tag; economy remains the primary.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Germany will be the first European country to impose broad…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources