Prediction record
MisspoliticsThe federal government / Biden administration will intervene on the side of the unions in the US rail labor dispute.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misspolitics“we are not going to see a resolution so with the Rail Yards I do expect the federal government to get involved but on the side of the unions”
The federal government / Biden administration will intervene on the side of the unions in the US rail labor dispute.
- Made on
- 2022-12-01
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-02
Test whether the federal government's resolution of the December 2022 rail labor dispute favored the unions (e.g., imposed/secured the unions' demands such as paid sick leave) rather than siding with management.
Criterion = whether the federal resolution of the Dec 2022 rail dispute FAVORED THE UNIONS (e.g., imposed/secured their demands such as paid sick leave) rather than siding with management. Evidence is clear and consistent: the federal government imposed the pre-existing tentative agreement, denied the unions the right to strike, and the unions' key demand (paid sick leave) was rejected in the Senate. The resolution sided AGAINST the unions / with management on the disputed points. (Note for completeness: a partial 1 paid-sick-day provision existed in the underlying tentative agreement and some carriers later granted additional sick days in 2023 negotiations, but the Dec 2022 federal resolution itself did not deliver the unions' demands.) Quantification/scoring deferred.
Sources
Implications of Impending US Rail Strikes
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
On 2 Dec 2022 President Biden signed legislation IMPOSING the tentative agreement on the rail unions and carriers to block the strike. He had explicitly urged Congress to 'pass legislation immediately to adopt the Tentative Agreement' — i.e., he intervened to force acceptance of a deal four unions had rejected, overriding the workers' right to strike.
The unions' central outstanding demand — paid sick leave — was NOT secured. The House passed a separate measure adding 7 days of paid sick leave, but it FAILED in the Senate (did not reach the 60-vote threshold). Biden signed the contract WITHOUT paid sick leave, conceding 'this bill doesn't have paid sick leave that these rail workers ... deserve.'
Rail workers and unions publicly expressed anger that Biden did not push harder for paid sick leave and instead backed imposing the contract / blocking the strike — corroborating that the federal resolution favored ending the dispute on the carriers' terms rather than delivering the unions' demands.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The federal government / Biden administration will interven…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources