Prediction record
HitsocietyChina will suffer probably millions of deaths in a relatively short period as three years of COVID exposure compress into a few weeks after the end of zero-COVID.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitsociety“we're talking probably millions of deaths in a relatively short period of time as three years of exposure American style has been compressed into just a few weeks”
China will suffer probably millions of deaths in a relatively short period as three years of COVID exposure compress into a few weeks after the end of zero-COVID.
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +4.6
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-14
Within roughly a year of the zero-COVID exit, test whether China's COVID wave causes on the order of millions of deaths (credible excess-mortality estimates in the millions).
Criterion tests whether China's post-zero-COVID wave caused on the order of millions of deaths within ~1 year (deadline 14 Dec 2023), via credible excess-mortality estimates in the millions. Multiple independent, credible/peer-reviewed estimates (JAMA Network Open ~1.87M; Stanford 1.44M-2.56M; US CDC EID ~1-1.5M; other models 1.4M) place excess deaths in the ~1-2.5 million range for the initial wave alone (Dec 2022-Feb 2023), all within the window. Estimates carry wide uncertainty and China's official toll (~60,000) is far lower and widely regarded as a severe undercount; the divergence is noted but the weight of credible independent evidence supports a millions-scale toll. resolved_on set to deadline. Final outcome value left to the quantify stage.
Sources
COVID: China's Problem Child
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
JAMA Network Open peer-reviewed study (Aug 2023) using obituary records of employees at three major Chinese universities estimates ~1.87 million excess deaths in China in the first 2 months after the end of zero-COVID (Dec 2022-Jan 2023), 95% CI 0.71M-4.43M — far exceeding China's official figure of ~60,000.
Stanford (FSI) analysis using elite death notices: lower-bound estimate ~1.44 million excess deaths nationally among those over 65, with an exploratory upper bound ~2.56 million, following the zero-COVID exit.
US CDC Emerging Infectious Diseases peer-reviewed estimate of COVID-19 deaths in China, December 2022-February 2023, with national estimates on the order of ~1-1.5 million during the initial post-reopening wave.
CIDRAP summary of multiple modeling studies: national excess-mortality estimates ranging roughly 0.71-1.87 million for the period shortly after zero-COVID ended (e.g., a separate ~1.41 million estimate, ~0.80M among those 80+).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+4.6- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +4.6
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
China will suffer probably millions of deaths in a relative…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources