Prediction record
MissenergyEurope's unusually warm winter will reverse to cold conditions within about two weeks of January 11, 2023.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missenergy“The problem of course is it's weather. It could change tomorrow, probably will change within a couple of weeks, and then we're going to be back in the same place.”
Europe's unusually warm winter will reverse to cold conditions within about two weeks of January 11, 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-01-11
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-02-08
Within roughly two weeks of 2023-01-11, European temperatures flip from the unusual January warmth back to cold/seasonal-or-below conditions.
Deadline 2023-04-11 long passed; resolvable. Criterion: within roughly two weeks of 2023-01-11 European temperatures flip from the unusual January warmth back to cold/seasonal-or-below. Primary climate data contradict this: the notable European cold occurred in EARLY January (Jan 1-7, before the prediction), after which warmth returned; ECMWF states 3 warm weeks came after mid-January, January 2023 was Europe's 3rd-warmest on record, and the winter was Europe's 2nd-warmest. The dramatic late-January/early-February record cold was in North America, not Europe. There is a brief dip-to-median around Jan 7-8, but that preceded Jan 11 and was not a sustained cold reversal in the Jan 11-25 window. No credible source shows Europe flipping to cold/seasonal-or-below within ~2 weeks after Jan 11, 2023. Minor nuance for verify: 'Europe' is large and a few areas (Iberia, Iceland/Greenland) ran cooler-than-average for the month, but the prediction concerned the reversal of the headline continental warmth, which did not materialize in the window.
Sources
A Toasty Winter in Europe
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 'Surface air temperature for January 2023': Europe had its THIRD-WARMEST January on record (European-average +2.20C vs the 1991-2020 mean). Most of Europe — notably the Balkans, eastern Europe, Finland and NW Russia — was warmer than average, with anomalies peaking at +5C over Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. The early-January record warmth was 'short-lived' (temperatures fell to the 1951-2018 median within a week — i.e., by ~Jan 7-8 — then ROSE AGAIN), so by/after the Jan 11 prediction date Europe was warming back up, not flipping to sustained cold.
ECMWF Newsletter 179, 'A cold winter in northern Europe': although the winter overall had a cold signal in the far north, the temperature breakdown shows the single coldest week was the one 'starting on 1 January' (weekly anomaly -16C; the Sweden/Finland record lows of -44.6C/-44.3C occurred 3-5 January, BEFORE the Jan 11 forecast), while '3 of the warm weeks appeared after mid-January' — i.e., the Jan 11-25 window the prediction targets was predominantly WARM in Europe, not a reversal to cold.
Context confirming the late-Jan/early-Feb 2023 record cold wave was a NORTH AMERICAN event, not European: the historic Arctic outbreak hit the US Northeast Feb 3-4, 2023 (Mount Washington wind chill -108F, a US record; Boston low -10F). Over the same period Europe was mild — Copernicus/Euronews report Europe went on to record its SECOND-WARMEST winter (Dec-Feb +1.4C vs 1991-2020). So no European flip-to-cold occurred within ~2 weeks of Jan 11, 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Europe's unusually warm winter will reverse to cold conditi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources