Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsGermany will publicly decide in February or March 2023 to contribute its own Leopard tanks and ramp up industrial production/refurbishment of Leopards for Ukraine
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“probably in uh February and March the Germans themselves are going to publicly decide whether or not they are going to going to contribute their own leopards and spin up their own industrial complex so that more leopards can be made and refurbished”
Germany will publicly decide in February or March 2023 to contribute its own Leopard tanks and ramp up industrial production/refurbishment of Leopards for Ukraine
- Made on
- 2023-01-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-01-25
Whether by end of March 2023 Germany publicly committed its own Leopard tanks and announced ramp-up of Leopard production/refurbishment for Ukraine
TWO nuances for the quantify/score stage to weigh against the written criterion (both sides noted; status still resolved): (1) TIMING — the claim said Germany would decide 'in February or March 2023,' but Germany actually committed its own Leopard 2A6 on January 25, 2023 (slightly EARLIER than predicted; the 14->18 increase was Feb 24, 2023, within the Feb/Mar window). (2) 'RAMP UP PRODUCTION' — Germany's effort was REFURBISHMENT/overhaul of existing Leopard stocks, NOT new-tank production. German law bars producing tanks for stock-keeping, and new production would take ~2 years; so a genuine 'industrial production ramp-up of Leopards' did not occur in Feb/Mar 2023 — the activity was refurbishment of existing 2A4/2A6 hulls and replenishing German stocks via Switzerland. Whether 'production/refurbishment' in the criterion is satisfied by refurbishment-only is a judgment for the scorer. The core 'commit its own Leopard tanks' element is clearly met.
Sources
A New Wave of German Strategic Defense Policy
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
On January 25, 2023, Germany committed to provide 14 of its OWN Leopard 2 tanks (Leopard 2A6 from Bundeswehr stocks) to Ukraine, with a stated combined goal of two tank battalions (~88 tanks) with allies, plus Ukrainian crew training, logistics and ammunition support in Germany.
Germany subsequently increased its own Leopard 2A6 contribution from 14 to 18 (confirmed Feb 24, 2023). The supply effort centered on REFURBISHMENT of existing stocks: Rheinmetall held ~22 Leopard 2A4 (repairs ~1 year, delivery late-2023/early-2024) plus ~29 more 2A4 potentially ready Apr-May 2023. On March 3, 2023, Germany asked Switzerland to sell decommissioned Leopard 2s back to Rheinmetall to replenish German stocks after donating its own.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Germany will publicly decide in February or March 2023 to c…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources