Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsRussia will conduct further mobilizations of personnel beyond the current one because it cannot substitute technology for infantry.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“there are less than 8 million Russian men in their 20s and we're now looking at about 10 percent of them being involved directly in in the war this isn't going to be the last mobilization either because the Russians don't have the tech all they have are bodies”
Russia will conduct further mobilizations of personnel beyond the current one because it cannot substitute technology for infantry.
- Made on
- 2023-01-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-01-12
By 2024-01-12, Russia conducts at least one additional general or partial mobilization of personnel beyond the autumn-2022 mobilization.
Deadline 2024-01-12 has passed; resolvable. Criterion: by 2024-01-12 Russia conducts at least one additional general or partial mobilization of personnel beyond the autumn-2022 mobilization. Evidence shows Russia did NOT declare any additional formal mobilization in the window — no new presidential mobilization decree in 2023 or by Jan 12 2024 — and instead relied on contract-soldier/'volunteer' recruitment and covert/administrative measures (electronic summons law; the autumn-2022 decree was never formally rescinded). The prediction of a further (additional) mobilization did not materialize by the deadline. INTERPRETIVE NUANCE for verify/quantify: (a) the autumn-2022 decree technically remaining 'in force' plus continuous 'crypto-mobilization' could be read by some as ongoing mobilization, but it was not a NEW/additional mobilization event as the criterion requires; (b) the predicted event later partially came true outside the window (analysts widely flagged hidden/continuous mobilization through 2024-2025 and Putin's Sept 2024 decree to enlarge the army by 180,000) — but those postdate the 2024-01-12 deadline and do not count for it. No conflicting credible evidence that a discrete additional mobilization was ordered within the window.
Sources
FULL Leadership Series: Leaders of the Present and Recent Past
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wikipedia '2022 Russian mobilization' (aggregating TASS/decree records): after the Sept 21 - Oct 28, 2022 partial mobilization (declared 'completed' by Putin on Oct 28, 2022), NO new formal partial or general mobilization decree was issued during 2023 or by Jan 12, 2024. Russia instead used administrative mechanisms — an April 2023 law enabling electronic call-up summons (criticized as 'hidden mobilization'), and a May 18, 2023 Supreme Court ruling clarifying the Sept-2022 decree remained technically in force — rather than ordering a fresh mobilization wave.
The Moscow Times, 'Anything But More Mobilization: Russia's Stealthy Push to Find More Soldiers' (Apr 6, 2023): the Kremlin 'largely given up on gathering troops... through mobilization' for fear of domestic backlash, instead pushing voluntary contract enlistment; authorities planned to hire ~420,000 contract 'volunteer' fighters by end of 2023. Confirms Russia deliberately AVOIDED announcing a second formal mobilization in 2023.
Meduza, 'Another round of mobilization in Russia appears inevitable. The only question is when.' (Sept 21, 2023): as of the one-year mark, Russia had NOT conducted a second mobilization wave; commentators treated a future wave as a possibility, not an accomplished fact — corroborating that no additional general/partial mobilization had occurred by late 2023, and none was declared before the Jan 12, 2024 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Russia will conduct further mobilizations of personnel beyo…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources