Russia's fertilizer exports to Brazil will be disrupted in the near future as a result of the Ukraine war.

Outcome evidence

• Russian fertilizer exports to Brazil were NOT disrupted over the prediction window — they grew to a record. Brazil received ~10.3 million tons of Russian fertilizers in 2023, remaining one of Russia's largest export markets; Russia's share of Brazil's potash imports rose from 27% (2021) to 29% (2023). Sanctioned Russian producers redirected exports toward southern-hemisphere/'friendly' markets, with ~75% of exports going to the global south by end-2023 and a 'significant increase in sales to Brazil, India and China.'

  Evidence

• IFPRI / USDA-ERS analyses of 2021-2023 global fertilizer trade confirm that after the initial 2022 price spike, trade flows largely normalized and Russia maintained/expanded volumes to non-Western buyers including Brazil, rather than experiencing sustained export disruption to Brazil.

  Evidence

• Contextual counter-evidence (does not change the outcome): in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, Bloomberg reported in April 2022 that Brazil was receiving a 'final wave' of crucial Russian fertilizer shipments amid logistics/payment fears — a brief early-2022 disruption scare. But this preceded the 2023-01-13 prediction date, and by the prediction window itself flows had recovered and grown, so it does not satisfy the criterion of disruption 'in the near future' from the made_on date.

  Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.