Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsIn spring/summer 2023 Russia will shift its targeting in Ukraine from electricity infrastructure to agricultural infrastructure
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“once we get to Spring the Russians are going to change targets not strategies but Targets in addition to pushing for a broad-based assault on multiple axes they will then shift their targeting from electricity infrastructure to something else”
In spring/summer 2023 Russia will shift its targeting in Ukraine from electricity infrastructure to agricultural infrastructure
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-07-19
Whether by end of summer 2023 Russia visibly shifted strike targeting from Ukrainian electricity infrastructure to agricultural infrastructure (silos, ports, processing)
Criterion met affirmatively: by end of summer 2023 Russia visibly shifted strike targeting from electricity infrastructure (the winter 2022-23 grid campaign, which tapered off in spring) to agricultural infrastructure — Black Sea/Danube ports (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Izmail, Reni), grain silos, terminals, and farm storage — in near-nightly strikes from ~17-19 July 2023 (right after exiting the Black Sea Grain Initiative) through October 2023. Resolved_on set to ~19 July 2023, when the agriculture/port strike campaign became unmistakable following the 17 July grain-deal withdrawal. Note one nuance for the later scoring stage: Russia had struck Ukrainian agricultural/port assets sporadically since 2022, so this is best characterized as a marked intensification/shift in emphasis rather than a first-ever turn to such targets; the energy→agriculture pivot is nonetheless clearly documented. Outcome value (o) and scoring not assigned (later stage).
Sources
The 2nd Holodomor: A Pending Genocide
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wikipedia 'Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure' and contemporaneous reporting: Russia's winter 'winterisation' campaign against Ukrainian energy/electricity infrastructure (peaking Oct-Dec 2022, >1,000 missiles/drones at the grid by mid-December) wound down with the arrival of spring 2023. On 17 July 2023 Putin announced Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, after which the Russian MoD justified mass-scale air strikes against Ukrainian sea ports and grain silos — a visible shift in targeting from energy to agricultural/grain infrastructure.
Euronews (22 July 2023): 'Russia targets Ukraine's farm storage sites after days of hitting Black Sea port facilities' — Russia expanded attacks from Odesa/Mykolaiv port infrastructure to farm storage buildings in the Odesa region following its withdrawal from the grain deal. CSIS and Global Rights Compliance documented that >101,000 sq m of grain storage plus export machinery was hit across Odesa Oblast between July and October 2023, with one strike alone damaging ~40,000 tons of grain destined for Africa, China, and Israel; UN Security Council briefing (sc15367) condemned attacks on Odesa port and grain-storage facilities.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
In spring/summer 2023 Russia will shift its targeting in Uk…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources