Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsSaudi Arabia and Iran will have a direct military confrontation within about a year (by early 2024).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“we're nearing a point where the Saudis and the Iranians are going to be having a direct confrontation in the not too distant future”
Saudi Arabia and Iran will have a direct military confrontation within about a year (by early 2024).
- Made on
- 2023-01-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-01-19
By 2024-01-19, Saudi Arabia and Iran engage in a direct state-on-state armed military confrontation (not solely proxy clashes).
Criterion (a direct state-on-state armed confrontation, not solely proxy clashes, by 2024-01-19) was clearly NOT met. The observed reality was the opposite — a Chinese-brokered détente and restoration of diplomatic ties. No assignment of outcome value here; that is a later stage. resolved_on set to the deadline since the criterion is a 'by date X' non-event that can only be confirmed at the deadline.
Sources
South Korea: Keeping Nukes on the Table
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
No direct state-on-state armed military confrontation occurred between Saudi Arabia and Iran during the prediction window. The opposite happened: on 2023-03-10, China brokered an agreement in Beijing under which Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations, reopen embassies within two months, respect each other's sovereignty, and reactivate a 2001 security-cooperation agreement — ending a seven-year rupture. This was an explicit de-escalation, not a confrontation.
The Saudi-Iran rapprochement that began in March 2023 held through 2024 and was assessed as effective at containing Gulf tensions; embassies reopened (Iran's in Riyadh in June 2023, Saudi's in Tehran in August 2023). No record of any direct Saudi-Iran military clash through early 2024. The first direct exchange of strikes between the two states is dated to the 2026 Iran war, well outside the deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.22- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Saudi Arabia and Iran will have a direct military confronta…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources