Prediction record
MisseconomyOver the next two to three years, global available capital will fall by at least a third.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“Over the course of the next two to three years we're looking at a global reduction in available capital of at least a third.”
Over the next two to three years, global available capital will fall by at least a third.
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-02-16
A credible measure of global available investment capital declines by at least one third versus the Feb 2023 baseline by roughly Feb 2026.
Resolved against multiple credible measures. Criterion requires 'a credible measure of global available investment capital' to decline by at least one third versus the Feb 2023 baseline by ~Feb 2026. The headline global-liquidity measures (CrossBorder Capital total liquidity) rose to record highs (~$185T) and peaked only in Q3 2025; the narrower G4 central-bank-balance-sheet measure contracted by a few trillion (low-single-digit %), still far short of one third. No credible aggregate measure shows a one-third decline over the window, so the prediction did not materialize. (If a later stage finds a niche measure showing a larger drop, both sides should be weighed, but the major measures concur.)
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Why the Fed Is Shrinking the Balance Sheet
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CrossBorder Capital (Michael Howell) Global Liquidity — the most-cited credible measure of global available investment capital — ROSE over the window, reaching record highs around US$185 trillion by 2025 (up from a depressed end-June-2023 reading). The 65-month liquidity cycle peaked only in Q3 2025 and was just beginning to ease (still at high levels) heading into 2026. Global liquidity did not fall by a third versus a Feb 2023 baseline; it expanded to record levels.
G4 central-bank balance-sheet measure: combined Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ assets shrank ~US$1.4T in 2024 with ~US$1.3T more projected through end-2025 (quantitative tightening) — a meaningful contraction in one narrow measure, but on the order of a few trillion against a ~US$170-185T total liquidity pool, i.e. low-single-digit percent, nowhere near a one-third decline. Even the narrowest 'central bank liquidity' lens does not show a ~33% drop.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.22- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.22
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Over the next two to three years, global available capital…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources