Prediction record
MisseconomyInflation over the next several years (through ~2026) will be at least as high as in 2022; 2022 will prove the lowest-inflation year of that stretch.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“Which means that we should think of the inflation environment of 2022 as arguably the lowest inflation we are going to see for several years.”
Inflation over the next several years (through ~2026) will be at least as high as in 2022; 2022 will prove the lowest-inflation year of that stretch.
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-03-12
Annual inflation in each year from 2023 through approximately 2026 is at least as high as the 2022 level (2022 is the minimum of the period).
Deadline 2026-02-28. Criterion: annual inflation in each year 2023 through ~2026 at least as high as 2022 (2022 = period minimum). With 2023 (4.1%), 2024 (2.9%), and 2025 (2.6%) all far below 2022 (8.0%) by official BLS data, the prediction is decisively falsified regardless of the partial 2026 figure (running ~2.4%). Interpreted using US CPI as the inflation benchmark, the most-cited measure for a US-audience claim. Resolvable now; resolved_on set to the date the last full year (2025) plus pre-deadline 2026 data made the outcome certain (approx., using the Feb 2026 CPI release window).
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Inflation: The Gift that Keeps on...Taking
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
US annual average CPI inflation (BLS, via US Inflation Calculator): 2022 = 8.0%, 2023 = 4.1%, 2024 = 2.9%, 2025 = 2.6%. Every year 2023-2025 was substantially LOWER than 2022, so 2022 was the MAXIMUM of the period, not the minimum as predicted.
Year-over-year CPI for the start of 2026 (the final months before the Feb 28, 2026 deadline) ran ~2.4% (Jan 2026 2.4%, Feb 2026 2.4%) — far below the 8.0% recorded in 2022, confirming no year in 2023-2026 matched or exceeded 2022.
Macrotrends US inflation series corroborates the same descending trajectory from the 2022 peak (~8%) through 2023-2025, consistent with BLS CPI.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.77- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Inflation over the next several years (through ~2026) will…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources