Prediction record
50% outcomegeopoliticsRussia's deployed troop count in Ukraine will reach approximately 600,000-700,000 by May-June 2023.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomegeopolitics“we're probably going to be around six to seven hundred thousand by the time we get to May and June”
Russia's deployed troop count in Ukraine will reach approximately 600,000-700,000 by May-June 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-02-23
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-30
Credible estimates put Russian troops deployed in/around Ukraine at approximately 600,000-700,000 by the end of June 2023. (Index 30 is the qualitative 'a lot more troops by May' restatement, same day.)
Criterion threshold (credible estimates of ~600,000-700,000 Russian troops in/around Ukraine by end of June 2023) was NOT met: the best contemporaneous estimates for June 2023 were ~360,000-410,000 (RUSI), with Ukrainian intel still at ~400,000 in October 2023; 600,000+ was first credibly reported in December 2023 (Putin: 617,000). NOTE / correction to a common conflation: a widely cited '695,000 Russian troops' Zelensky figure circulates, but that statement dates to JUNE 2025, not June 2023, and must not be used to resolve this June-2023-window record. Resolution status is set on the body of consistent June-2023 evidence; no genuinely conflicting credible source places June-2023 deployment at 600-700k.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || The Ukraine War: Operational Updates
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
RUSI: 'The Russian military began 2023 with a highly disorganised force in Ukraine comprising approximately 360,000 troops. By the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive in June 2023, this had risen to 410,000 troops.' This is the contemporaneous credible estimate of Russian forces deployed in/around Ukraine as of June 2023 — roughly 360,000-410,000, far below the predicted 600,000-700,000.
The 600,000+ threshold was only reached and disclosed at the END of 2023, not by June: Putin's 14 December 2023 year-end remarks put 617,000 Russian servicemen in the conflict zone. As late as October 2023 Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) estimated only ~400,000+ Russian troops in the occupied territories. This confirms the 600-700k level was not attained within the prediction's end-June-2023 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.46- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Russia's deployed troop count in Ukraine will reach approxi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources