Prediction record
25% outcomegeopoliticsBy Spring 2023, Russia will shift from targeting Ukrainian civilian electrical infrastructure to targeting food production and transport.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomegeopolitics“by the time we get to Spring it's going to be a different kind of war the Russians are going to be very clearly going for the throat instead of targeting civilian electrical infrastructure they're likely to go after food production and transport”
By Spring 2023, Russia will shift from targeting Ukrainian civilian electrical infrastructure to targeting food production and transport.
- Made on
- 2023-02-10
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-21
By the end of spring 2023, Russian strikes demonstrably shift emphasis from civilian electrical infrastructure to Ukrainian food production and transport infrastructure per credible reporting.
Mixed/partial fit to the written criterion. The criterion requires that by end of spring 2023 (21 June) Russian strikes 'demonstrably shift emphasis from civilian electrical infrastructure to Ukrainian food production and transport infrastructure per credible reporting.' By the deadline: (a) electrical-grid strikes had indeed wound down, but (b) the demonstrable strike campaign against food production/transport infrastructure had NOT yet begun — it started ~1 month later, after the 17 July 2023 grain-deal collapse. Spring-2023 pressure on food was via inspection slow-walking, not strikes. So the specific predicted re-targeting of strikes onto food infrastructure was not demonstrable by the 21 June 2023 deadline (though it materialized soon after). A later stage may weigh the directionally-correct-but-late timing; flagging the timing nuance here rather than as needs_human_review since the deadline-bound facts are clear and well-sourced.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Why Are My Eggs So D*** Expensive?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Large-scale Russian strikes on Ukraine's civilian electrical/power grid (the September 2022 campaign) had largely PAUSED by spring 2023; available generation capacity had bottomed out and supply shortages were moderating by April 2023. So one half of the predicted shift (away from electrical infrastructure) did occur. Russia did not resume wide-scale power-grid attacks until March 22, 2024.
During spring 2023 Russia's pressure on Ukrainian FOOD exports took the form of slow-walking Black Sea Grain Initiative inspections (daily inspections fell below 5 in April-May-June 2023; halted Pivdennyi/Yuzhny ship inspections from 29 April; no inspections 1-4 June), NOT a strike campaign on food production/transport infrastructure. The deal remained operational through spring (extended 17 March and 18 May 2023). Bureaucratic obstruction is not 'strikes' on food infrastructure.
The major Russian MILITARY strike campaign explicitly targeting Ukrainian grain/food export infrastructure (Odesa and Chornomorsk port grain terminals, Danube river ports, destruction of 60,000+ tonnes of grain, 26 port facilities hit in nine days) began only AFTER Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 17 July 2023 — i.e., after the spring-2023 (21 June) deadline. CSIS frames these as 'renewed attacks on Ukraine's grain infrastructure' starting mid-July 2023.
UN Security Council / OCHA briefings documenting the strikes on Odesa port and grain-storage facilities are dated July-August 2023 (e.g., SC/15362, SC/15367), confirming the demonstrable shift to bombing food production and transport infrastructure occurred in summer 2023, after the criterion's end-of-spring deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.18- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
By Spring 2023, Russia will shift from targeting Ukrainian…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources