Prediction record
25% outcomeeconomyUS car prices will improve significantly over the next three months (by approximately June 2023).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomeeconomy“I would expect for things that were particularly out of whack like say car prices to really get better over the course of the next three months”
US car prices will improve significantly over the next three months (by approximately June 2023).
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.79
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-05-28
US car prices (a recognized index such as Manheim used-vehicle or CPI new/used vehicles) decline meaningfully over the three months following Feb 2023.
Criterion ('US car prices, e.g. Manheim, decline meaningfully over the three months following Feb 2023') is testable and the evidence runs AGAINST the prediction of significant improvement: wholesale used-vehicle prices rose +2.5% in January and continued higher through Q1 ('spring bounce'), were still up ~5.2% vs December as of April, and only began declining in April 2023 (-3% m/m) — the first drop of the year. Over the Feb 2023 -> ~late-May/June 2023 window prices did not improve significantly; they were higher for most of it with only a late, modest pullback. Status set to resolved on consistent Manheim/Cox Automotive data; the direction-and-magnitude judgment is for the later quantify/score stage. No outcome value assigned here. (CNBC source corroborated via Cox Automotive press releases; CNBC page returned 403 to direct fetch but the figures are confirmed by the search snippet and the contemporaneous Cox releases.)
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Inflation: The Gift that Keeps on...Taking
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index ROSE through Q1 2023 on a 'healthy spring bounce': wholesale used-vehicle values increased 2.5% in January 2023 m/m (index to 224.8) and continued climbing through Q1. As of the April 2023 report the index was still UP 5.2% from December 2022 — i.e. used-vehicle prices got higher, not lower, for most of the Feb-late-May 2023 window.
April 2023 was the FIRST monthly decline of the year: Cox Automotive reported the Manheim index fell 3% from March to April 2023 ('wholesale used vehicle prices declined last month for the first time this year'), and the index was down ~4.4% from April 2022 year-over-year. So a modest decline began only at the very end of the prediction window, after prices had risen for the preceding months.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.79- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.79
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US car prices will improve significantly over the next thre…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources