Prediction record
MissgeopoliticsIn May-June 2023, Russia will switch from targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure to targeting agricultural infrastructure (fertilizer plants, grain silos, transshipment, rail, ports).
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missgeopolitics“as we get into May and especially June when it becomes apparent that knocking out the power doesn't make anyone freeze to death anymore the Russians are going to switch targets to go after the agricultural system especially fertilizer plants grain silos grain trans shipment locations at rail centers ports”
In May-June 2023, Russia will switch from targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure to targeting agricultural infrastructure (fertilizer plants, grain silos, transshipment, rail, ports).
- Made on
- 2023-03-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-30
During May-June 2023, Russian strikes demonstrably shift from electrical/power infrastructure to Ukrainian agricultural infrastructure (silos, fertilizer plants, rail, ports) per credible reporting.
Criterion (Russian strikes 'demonstrably shift from electrical/power infrastructure to Ukrainian agricultural infrastructure during May-June 2023') was NOT met within the specified window. In May 2023 Russia was still hitting power/energy infrastructure (large strikes through May 8); in June 2023 the notable escalation was on a dam/hydro target (Kakhovka, June 6). The clear, systematic pivot to grain silos/ports/terminals occurred in July 2023, after the grain-deal collapse — i.e. the substantive shift Zeihan described did eventually happen, but ~1 month after the predicted May-June deadline. Resolved against the written timing criterion (deadline 2023-06-30). Do NOT assign outcome value here.
Sources
Peter Zeihan || Agricultural Disruptions in Argentina and Ukraine
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Wilson Center, 'Ukraine's Energy System Under Attack This Spring—Again': Russia resumed wide-scale attacks on Ukraine's POWER system beginning March 22, 2023, with massive strikes on Mar 22, Mar 29, Apr 11, Apr 29, and May 8, 2023 — i.e. the May 2023 focus was still electrical/energy infrastructure, not agricultural infrastructure.
Timeline of Russian strikes (per Wikipedia 'Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure', corroborated by news reporting): May 2023 strikes concentrated on energy/critical infrastructure (Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, oil depots); June 2023 emphasized water/dam infrastructure (Kakhovka Dam destroyed June 6, 2023). Systematic targeting of grain/port/agricultural infrastructure began in JULY 2023, after Russia withdrew from the grain deal — not during May-June 2023.
NPR (July 22, 2023) and Amnesty International (July 2023): Russia's sustained campaign against Ukrainian grain silos, oil terminals and port infrastructure at Odesa/Mykolaiv/Chornomorsk began only AFTER it ended the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17, 2023 — destroying ~60,000 tonnes of grain in the July 19 Odesa attack. This dates the agricultural-infrastructure shift to July 2023, outside the predicted May-June 2023 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
In May-June 2023, Russia will switch from targeting Ukraini…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources