Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsSweden will join NATO within about a year (by ~2024-05-12), even if Erdogan wins re-election.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“even if you know erwan walks away with this election again we're probably going to see Sweden pretty soon”
Sweden will join NATO within about a year (by ~2024-05-12), even if Erdogan wins re-election.
- Made on
- 2023-05-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-07
Sweden formally accedes to NATO by roughly mid-2024.
Criterion ('Sweden formally accedes to NATO by roughly mid-2024') is met: formal accession (deposit of instrument) occurred 2024-03-07, about two months before the explicit 2024-05-12 deadline. The conditional clause 'even if Erdogan wins re-election' is satisfied — Erdogan won Turkey's runoff on 28 May 2023, and Turkey subsequently ratified Sweden's accession (Jan 2024), after which Sweden acceded. No outcome value (o) assigned per instructions; scoring is a later stage.
Sources
Turkey's Presidential Elections: A Turning Point for Turkish Politics || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
NATO official news: Sweden became NATO's 32nd member on 7 March 2024 upon depositing its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the U.S. government in Washington DC. This is within the prediction's ~mid-2024 (deadline 2024-05-12) window.
CNN: Sweden officially joined NATO on 7 March 2024 as the alliance's 32nd member, ending centuries of neutrality; flag raised at NATO HQ in Brussels on 11 March 2024.
Arms Control Association corroborates Sweden's accession in March 2024 as 32nd member.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Sweden will join NATO within about a year (by ~2024-05-12),…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources