Prediction record
HitgeopoliticsThe Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin in the last week of May or in June 2023.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Hitgeopolitics“expect to see that starting probably either in the last week of May or sometime in June once the ground has firmed up enough that it's not muddy and tanks can actually maneuver”
The Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin in the last week of May or in June 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-05-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-08
Ukraine launches its major 2023 counter-offensive between roughly 2023-05-24 and 2023-06-30.
Criterion = Ukraine launches its major 2023 counteroffensive between ~2023-05-24 and 2023-06-30. The major counteroffensive is universally dated to early June 2023 (ISW: 4 June; Western press: 8 June) — squarely inside the window. There is a documented dispute about the EXACT start date: Ukrainian officials at times downplayed/denied a formal start (e.g., advisor Podolyak said on 15 June it 'had not begun'), and shaping operations ran from ~12 May. However, ALL credible candidate dates (3-8 June) fall within the 24 May-30 June window, so the date-ambiguity does not change resolution. Resolved_on set to 8 June 2023 (widely reported start); the earlier 4 June date is also inside the window. Outcome value/scoring deferred to later stage.
Sources
Ukraine War Updates Part 2: The Counter-Offensive || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Ukraine launched 'wider counteroffensive operations' beginning 4 June 2023; Russia claimed it thwarted a 'large-scale offensive' on 4 June. Zelenskyy stated on 3 June Ukraine was ready to launch.
Western media (Washington Post and others) reported the counteroffensive had begun on 8 June 2023 — within the predicted window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin in the last week…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources