Prediction record
MisseconomyOnly about 10% of Ukraine's grain will be exported in 2023.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“maybe ten percent of Ukraine's grain can out get out this year”
Only about 10% of Ukraine's grain will be exported in 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-05-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.92
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Ukraine exports roughly 10% (an order-of-magnitude reduction) of its grain output during 2023.
Calendar-2023 window has fully elapsed. The criterion ('Ukraine exports roughly 10% — an order-of-magnitude reduction — of its grain output during 2023') is clearly NOT met: Ukraine exported on the order of 47–64 MMT in 2023/24, i.e., the large majority (well over 50%, near pre-war absolute levels) of its grain, not ~10%. The claim of a ~90% collapse to ~10% is contradicted by primary trade/USDA/CSIS data. No outcome value (o) assigned; scoring is a later stage. Minor caveat: 'grain exported as a share of output' depends on whether one counts marketing-year vs calendar-year and grain-only vs grain+oilseed, but under every reasonable reading the exported share is far above 10%.
Sources
Ukraine War Q&A Series: Why Worry About Ukraine's Agriculture Exports? || Peter Zeihan
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CSIS: Ukraine's MY2023/24 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024) grain & oilseed exports totaled ~63.77 million metric tons, only ~2 MMT below the prior two marketing years and approaching pre-war norms (~67.5 MMT in 2018/19, ~74 MMT in 2019/20). Far above any ~10%-of-output figure — Ukraine exported the large majority of its grain in 2023, not ~10%.
MarineLink/trade data: Ukraine grain exports reached ~47.7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season; ESM Magazine and TradeImeX likewise report multi-tens-of-millions of tonnes exported in 2023, with 2023 grain export value ~$8.3bn. No source supports a ~10% figure.
USDA FAS context: 2023/24 grain production ~60.1 MMT with exports of roughly the same order, i.e., the vast majority of output was exported; the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the later unilateral Ukrainian Black Sea corridor sustained large export volumes through 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.92- Confidence
- 10%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.92
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Only about 10% of Ukraine's grain will be exported in 2023.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources