The Kakhovka reservoir will fully drain within a few days, causing massive downstream flooding that, when it recedes about one to two weeks later, will leave extremely muddy conditions.

Outcome evidence

• The Kakhovka dam was breached pre-dawn June 6, 2023; ~18 cubic km of water was released downstream over roughly 3-4 days, inundating 600+ km². Reservoir drawdown was rapid (Nikopol level fell ~0.35 m/hour initially; 14.41 m at 24h, 13.05 m at 48h). The reservoir had 'largely dried up' by June 21 and was effectively dry by late June / early August — i.e. the reservoir drained on a days-to-weeks scale, with the bulk of the outflow in the first few days.

  Evidence

• Downstream flooding peaked ~June 7 (average flood level in Kherson Oblast 5.61 m two days after the breach); waters then receded — flood level in Kherson Oblast dropped to 1.98 m by ~10 a.m. June 15, and the Dnipro at Kherson had returned to its pre-destruction level by June 25 (~18 days after the breach). Reporting describes municipal workers shoveling away 'the muck' as they reclaimed the city, and that floodwaters left the soil swampy 'for weeks to come.'

  Evidence

• Independent satellite analysis confirms the release of ~18 km³ over ~4 days flooding 620+ km², with flooded-area imagery tracked June 5-9 and the reservoir shrinking dramatically by June 21 — corroborating the rapid-drain-then-recede sequence.

  Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.