Prediction record
MissenergyWithin a year (maybe a year and a half), Venezuela will become a net oil importer, with full societal collapse following over the next few years, because without majors like Chevron it will lose oil-production capacity.
A scored record for Peter Zeihan, made on .
Scored record
Missenergy“we're going to see Venezuela fall into the errors of being the oil importer within a year, maybe a year and a half.”
Within a year (maybe a year and a half), Venezuela will become a net oil importer, with full societal collapse following over the next few years, because without majors like Chevron it will lose oil-production capacity.
- Made on
- 2024-06-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-12
Resolved TRUE if by ~2025-12-12 Venezuela had become a net oil importer (lost crude-production capacity). Resolved FALSE if Venezuela was still producing/exporting meaningful crude.
Miss on the core falsifiable claim (net oil importer within ~18 months): output actually rose. The broader 'full societal collapse over the next very few years' is a longer/vaguer horizon and is not what this record resolves.
Sources
Outcome evidence
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Source prefixes the claim with 'almost certainly barring a significant change in policy'. verbatim_marker must hold the estimative-confidence phrase, not the outcome timeframe.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Within a year (maybe a year and a half), Venezuela will bec…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 4, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-06-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources